Thursday, August 21, 2008
Thursday, August 21
Been distracted much of the day by all this McCain houses stuff. But I've been talking to more people about the veep thing, and the picture I get is this: McCain is sitting in front of a console with a switch with two positions: GAMBLE and PLAY IT SAFE. If he moves the switch to GAMBLE, he picks Lieberman. If he moves it to PLAY IT SAFE, he picks Pawlenty. It seems increasingly clear that a Tom Ridge gamble doesn't make a lot of sense, and a Mitt Romney choice isn't a big gamble, but it isn't really safe either.
Still, Romney is an unquantifiable here. I mentioned yesterday that if McCain were to pick Ridge, "it will be because he likes him personally and believes Ridge can win Pennsylvania." Now, it's not clear to me that McCain will make the choice based on whether a veep could carry a particular state, but if he did, I've been told, there is a feeling that Romney has a pretty good argument to make that choosing him would help quite a bit in Nevada and Colorado, with their significant Mormon populations. That makes some sense; it's my guess that Romney could do more to bring in Nevada and Colorado than Ridge could in Pennsylvania.
The gamble to a Romney pick is two-fold. One, there are all those attack ads about Romney's flip-flops (some of them produced by the McCain campaign). That would certainly be useful to the Obama campaign. And two, there are worries that some portion of the social conservative base would have concerns about Mormonism. That would be a problem inside the Republican party. Finally, all I hear about Romney from the McCain circle is that the animosity that existed earlier between the two men is gone, and that Romney has done a great job as a surrogate for McCain. It seems to me that there is more of an emphasis on the absence of animosity than on any actual fondness between the two men, so that could be another problem.
08/21 06:18 PM
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Wednesday, August 20
Talked to more people today who are knowledgeable, in one way or another, about the McCain camp. I run past them what I heard yesterday, that is, if McCain knew ahead of time that he was going to win, then he would definitely pick Lieberman or Ridge. People pretty much agree.
Given that, I ask whether there's any difference to McCain between Lieberman and Ridge. Yes, one guy has an 80 ADA rating, I'm told. That's a reference to Lieberman's lifetime liberal rating from the Americans for Democratic Action. (As it turns out, Lieberman's actual lifetime ADA rating is just 77 — practically a conservative!) Just think of all those issues — pretty much every single domestic issue — on which Lieberman and McCain have voted on opposite sides. "I just don't know how you square the philosophical differences," one insider tells me. Why not just make Lieberman Secretary of Defense instead?
Choosing Ridge, on the other hand, might give McCain some of that maverick feeling without the problems of Lieberman. Ridge is, after all, the guy who doesn't have the 80 ADA rating, and he's a Vietnam veteran, to boot. Others just don't see any benefit to choosing Ridge, although they believe there is a faction within the McCain camp that is weighing closely whether Ridge might help deliver Pennsylvania to McCain, which would be a hell of a lot more tangible benefit than any good feelings that might result from choosing a Democrat.
On the other hand, someone else asks, why are we hearing so much about Ridge now? Just when did he enter the mix seriously? It's hard to pinpoint, but I am reminded that Ridge was vetted as a possible running mate for Bob Dole in 1996. People focus on his record on abortion now, the insiders say, but his whole record in Congress was more liberal than most of the House GOP.
In 1988, his American Conservative Union rating was 36; in 1987, it was 19.
Later, Ridge's rating went into the 50s and 60s, with the occasional rating above 70. But the point is there could be plenty of conservative unhappiness with Ridge even without the abortion issue. If McCain picks Ridge, I am told, it will be because he likes him personally and believes Ridge can win Pennsylvania.
On Lieberman, I talk to people about the value of sticking with one's team in politics. I have never worked for a campaign or for an officeholder or in the government or anything like that, but it seems to me that when you get down to the most fundamental level of politics, no matter how bipartisan you are, you have to stick with your team. For example, you can be an aisle-crossing senator all you want, but when it comes time to organize the Senate every two years, you're expected to vote for your team's guy. You just are. It seems to me that choosing a running mate on a presidential ticket is one of those occasions. Some of the people in the McCain circle agree with that, but there is some question about how much the inner circle — the ones who are actually helping McCain choose a running mate — share that opinion. Some of them have come up through activist Republican party politics, but others haven't, and they might not fully appreciate the intensity of feeling that choosing a Democrat would arouse among many Republicans.
How about an on-the-record source? I call Katon Dawson, head of the South Carolina Republican party. Has he gotten any feelers from Team McCain, asking him what reaction the base might have to a Lieberman or Ridge pick? Dawson says he hasn't heard anything from the McCain campaign. But he has some fairly strong feelings about the vice-presidential issue.
"I'm firmly in the pro-life camp," Dawson tells me. "I'm a platform kind of guy. And I would encourage the McCain camp to be cognizant of [the pro-life position] for the base and especially for the people who are doing the get-out-the-vote work for us."
Does that mean he would firmly oppose Lieberman or Ridge? "I wouldn't personalize," Dawson says. "But it's one of the fundamental foundations of the party. I would encourage the McCain camp to be aware of who we're going to have working in the vineyards. I understand it's probably sexy to look at other alternatives and see what they bring to the table, but at the same time, I'm a business guy, and we're talking about customersŠYou've got to have volunteers, and the vice presidential pick will be crucial."
Dawson tells me that enthusiasm for McCain has been growing of late — "we're having volunteers coming out of the woodwork." But that could change. "I would hate to see anything dampen that," Dawson says. And he tells me he remains optimistic that McCain will choose a running mate who will make the base happy. "I have my fingers crossed," he says.
08/20 03:00 PM
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Tuesday, August 19
Okay, here's my take on the McCain veep stuff, based on talking to people who talk to people. (I think it's clear that the aides closest to McCain, the ones who are really making the decision, are not talking to the press, or at least they're not revealing anything about the process. But people talk to people, and there are concentric circles of information out there.)
I get the sense that if McCain were able to name his veep choice and know in advance that he was going to win, he would choose either Joe Lieberman or Tom Ridge. They're his friends, and he believes they share his world view.
The campaign obviously floated a trial balloon about a pro-choice candidate, and got clobbered today. But I think they look at it as being clobbered by all the usual suspects, and thus not all that big a deal. They expected the pro-lifers to be very agitated about it, and they expected Rush Limbaugh to come down on it. But in their view, Limbaugh did everything he could to try to stop McCain from being the nominee, and yet here McCain is. So I think they view the loudest reaction to the trial balloon to be in some part a lot of sound and fury. What matters now, they say, is the larger electorate. A choice of Lieberman, I've been told, would give McCain back his maverick status, reach out to disaffected Democrats and independents, and remove the argument that a McCain administration would be a third term for George W. Bush.
But there is still the reaction of state officials, money people, and other politicos to be considered. That is still coming in. The campaign is looking at delegates from the various states, and how loyal to McCain those delegates are, and whether a Ridge or Lieberman choice could be a problem with the less McCain-dependent types in the GOP delegate world.
On the Lieberman thing, I think that, McCain's personal feelings aside, there was a slightly stronger feeling for him a while back than there is now. Then, there was the feeling that choosing Lieberman would be so dramatic that it would be a game changer. But now, the feeling is that the game is moving in McCain's direction anyway, so that reduces some of the urgency for a Lieberman choice.
But it's all still up in the air. People who have talked to McCain on a regular basis believe that he is struggling with the issue, is doing a lot of listening, and has not made up his mind.
As for the other potential candidates, the greatest impression Tim Pawlenty has made with some in the McCain camp is one of blandness. But that might be good, especially if Obama were to choose Evan Bayh, who is also profoundly bland. So a choice of Bayh might help Pawlenty, who is viewed as the safest available choice.
But I'm told that a number of people on Team McCain believe Obama will choose Tim Kaine. That could push the argument a bit toward Mitt Romney — a more forceful governor than Pawlenty. If Obama chose Joe Biden, that might also push Pawlenty down a little bit, but would not specifically help either Ridge, Lieberman, or Romney.
So what's going on? I think it's clear that what a number of conservatives view as worst-case scenarios are definitely under consideration. On the other hand, scenarios that would be welcome to conservatives are also under consideration. Several weeks ago, a close McCain adviser told me to keep in mind the possibility of a "personal" choice on McCain's part. I asked him if that meant "quirky." He said he preferred the word "personal." Personal. Quirky. Who knows?
08/19 03:00 PM
